Sector: Other

The outbreak of Coronavirus in Italy continues to raise concern. To contain the spreading of the virus, the Italian Government has taken severe measures that strongly restrict commercial activities, causing an unavoidable contraction on companies’ sales revenues. At this stage, it’s hard to predict how long the emergency will last and the impact it will have on the real economy and international
Along with macroeconomic considerations, it’s now necessary to forecast the impact it will have on every single company and its supply chain, allowing entrepreneurs to review their business and credit strategy to limit damages. Through the Forecasting-StressTest analysis model (For-ST), modefinance can estimate the impact of COVID-19 on companies’ performances according to 3 different scenarios (positive, neutral and negative) and simulate how it will affect their creditworthiness and probability of default (PD).
For-ST is an analysis tool designed to process budget simulations and stress testing scenarios within the Rating-as-a-Service platform developed by modefinance.

The model runs both historical and statistical information. Artificial Intelligence algorithms group companies with significant common features into clusters and determine the most likely future behavior of the analyzed company according to its size, industry, location, creditworthiness and economic and financial history.